In UP chess board, SP's latest movies: Women-led DA push to breach BJP allies' base.

Sanchita Chatterjee, BS News Agency: With the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh a few months away, the pieces on the chessboard of politics have started moving. The main Opposition force, the Samajwadi Party (SP), has sharpened its strategy to breach the consolidated non-Yadav OBC support base of BJP allies by rolling out its women-led PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) outreach. For the past few years, the BJP has relied on its network of regional allies in the state to secure key non-Yadav OBC constituencies. The Apna Dal (Sonelal) is seen to be influential among the Kurmi-Patels, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) among Rajbhars, and the NISHAD Party among riverine communities such as Nishad, Mallah, and Kewat. Together, these groups form a decisive electoral bloc, particularly in Purvanchal or eastern UP.

Beyond M-Y formula

Traditionally anchored in the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combination, the SP has been attempting a broader social coalition since the last election and appears to have doubled down on this strategy. Its recent moves suggest a calibrated effort to symbolically and organisationally penetrate caste bases aligned with NDA using women's leadership as the pivot.

The appointment of Seema Rajbhar as national president of the SP Mahila Sabha is being seen as a direct outreach to the Rajbhar community, mobilised politically by SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar. Hailing from Ballia in eastern UP, her elevation signals the SP's intent to expand its footprint in districts where the SBSP has influence. A former SBSP worker, Seema Rajbhar has been publicly critical of Rajbhar.

The Rajbhar community is estimated to constitute around 4-5% of the state's population, mainly concentrated in districts such as Ghazipur, Azamgarh, Ballia, Chandauli, Gorakhpur, Jaunpur and Mau. The SBSP currently has six MLAs - elected in alliance with the SP in 2022 before switching to the NDA, with Om Prakash Rajbhar now a state minister.

Similarly, the SP's appointment of Rukmani Nishad, sister of former MP Phoolan Devi, as the state head of its women's wing is seen as outreach to the Nishad-Mallah-Kewat cluster. This group, estimated at 5-6% of the population, is influential in riverine belts, the Terai region and parts of Purvanchal. The move directly challenges the BJP's ally, the NISHAD Party led by Sanjay Nishad.

The NISHAD Party currently has five MLAs. The community's presence extends beyond eastern UP into parts of central Uttar Pradesh, potentially influencing outcomes in 25-30 Assembly seats.