The topic currently dominating discussions is the possibility of Mamata Banerjee joining the Congress. Rumor has it that it is not merely a case of her or Abhishek Banerjee joining the Congress; the Trinamool leader might actually merge her party with the Congress. Such a decision would have to be executed at the organizational level—a decision that rests solely with party delegates, not elected representatives (MPs and MLAs).
Trinamool’s constitution, modeled after that of the Congress, contains provisions for this very scenario. Consequently, if the party delegates (numbering close to a thousand) convene and pass this resolution by a majority vote, all Trinamool elected representatives would—in accordance with the rules—immediately be recognized as Congress representatives. This would combine Trinamool’s 80 MLAs with Congress’s 2, bringing the Congress's total strength in the Legislative Assembly to 82.
Naturally, the dissident MPs and MLAs would not accept this decision. In this scenario, the MLAs might easily break away from the Congress fold due to their numerical strength, as they command a two-thirds majority—holding 55 of the required 82 seats. However, if Trinamool’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs were to be classified as Congress representatives, the party's total strength would rise to 127; a two-thirds majority of this figure is 85 MPs. Thus, lacking the necessary numbers, they would be unable to defect. At best, the dissidents could resign. While they could join forces with the MLAs to form a new party, they would have no access to Trinamool’s flag, symbol, or funds. Trinamool's funds, amounting to thousands of crores of rupees, would end up in the Congress coffers. In other words, Mamata Banerjee could block the path that would see the party she built with her own hands pass into the hands of others. That possibility now appears strong. The question remains: is this an act of retaliation, a battle for survival, or a strategy to safeguard self-respect?